NAKA is at $0.215, down 99%, trading below the value of its Bitcoin. Here's why I'm betting on it.
TL;DR — Bitcoin is going to a million dollars. NAKA is the cheapest way to bet on that. The stock is down 99%, trading below the value of the Bitcoin it holds. Even if the company does nothing for six years, I still 25x my money. If they execute, it's 78-155x. I'm putting in what I can afford to lose — enough to change my life if it works, not enough to hurt if it doesn't.
Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins. That number never changes. Every four years, the rate at which new coins are created gets cut in half. The next halving is 2028, and the one after that is 2032.
Meanwhile, demand keeps growing. Spot ETFs brought in hundreds of billions of dollars. Corporate treasuries are accumulating. Nation-states are starting to hold it. The supply shock hasn't hit yet, but it's coming.
If Bitcoin becomes what I think it becomes — the global reserve asset, digital gold, the savings account for the internet — then $1M per coin isn't crazy. It's just math. 21 million coins times $1M equals a $21 trillion market cap, which is still less than gold, less than US real estate, and less than the S&P 500. The question isn't whether Bitcoin gets there, it's when. I think 2032 is reasonable — two more halving cycles away.
Nakamoto Inc. is a Bitcoin treasury company listed on NASDAQ. They own Bitcoin Magazine, The Bitcoin Conference, and UTXO Management, and they hold 5,058 Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
The stock hit an all-time high of $34.77 last year. It's now $0.215 — down 99%. The market is saying that the operating businesses are worth zero, for the company that runs the biggest Bitcoin media platform in the world.
Because they're going through a hard time. They sold Bitcoin at a loss to pay bills, they have a big loan at 8% interest, and they're burning cash. The market has given up on them.
But the operating businesses are real. Bitcoin Conference had 67,000 attendees last year. Bitcoin Magazine is the biggest publication in the space. These are actual businesses with actual revenue, and the market is pricing them at zero because NAKA is struggling right now. That's the opportunity.
NAKA trades at 0.96x the value of its Bitcoin holdings, which means you're effectively buying Bitcoin at a 4% discount through this stock.
There's a key insight from James Check at Checkonchain: all Bitcoin treasury company premiums converge to 1x over time. As more treasury companies emerge, the market gets more efficient at pricing Bitcoin exposure, premiums compress, and everything settles at 1x. Metaplanet is already at 0.98x, MSTR is at 1.25x, and NAKA is at 0.96x. The direction is clear. I use 1x as my base case, and anything above that is bonus.
If Bitcoin goes to $1M by 2032, here's what happens across different scenarios:
| Scenario | BTC Price | NAKA BTC | mNAV | Share Price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| They do nothing | $1M | 5,058 | 1.0x | $5.45 | 25x |
| They sell some BTC to survive | $1M | 4,558 | 1.0x | $4.90 | 23x |
| They execute, accumulate 25K BTC | $1M | 25,000 | 1.0x | $16.67 | 78x |
| They execute + bull cycle premium | $1M | 25,000 | 2.0x | $33.33 | 155x |
Even in the worst case, where NAKA can't raise a single dollar and just sits on what they have, you still 25x your money if Bitcoin hits $1M. The downside is you lose your investment. The upside is 25-155x. That's the asymmetry.
NAKA has a $5 billion ATM program — that's permission from the SEC to sell new shares directly into the market and use the cash to buy Bitcoin. It doesn't work at $0.215 because selling shares at this price would be extremely dilutive, but when the stock rises with Bitcoin, they can activate it, raise capital, buy more BTC, and repeat. It's a flywheel. They've only used $6.4M of the $5B so far because the price isn't right yet, but the vehicle is there and ready to go.
The Kraken loan is $210M at 8% interest — if Bitcoin drops hard, they could face margin calls, which is the biggest risk. Dilution at current prices is brutal, so the stock needs to rise for capital raises to make sense. They have six months of cash runway, which means they need to raise money or generate revenue soon. And David Bailey has to actually build a profitable company — so far they've sold Bitcoin at a loss, not accumulated. If they go bankrupt before 2032, the thesis is dead.
The math works even if NAKA executes poorly. Bitcoin to $1M means 25x minimum, regardless of what the company does. The 78-155x upside is gravy.
I'm putting in what I can afford to lose — not rent money, not emergency fund, but money that would suck to lose without changing my life, and money that turns into $1M if I'm right. That's the asymmetry. Small downside, massive upside. It's the kind of bet you take when you understand the risk and believe in the thesis.
I believe Bitcoin hits $1M by 2032. NAKA is the most leveraged way to bet on it.
Sources: nakamoto.com, 10-K, treasury.bjunjo.com. I hold NAKA. Not financial advice.